Patriots Outlook After Aaron Hernandez

You won't be seeing any of Hernandez's TD celebrations this year

     Aaron Hernandez's arrest and release from the New England Patriots brought closure on many levels to the organization. No longer will there be mass media waiting to see Hernandez, creating one distraction that I'm sure Bill Belichick hated. Also, fans and the media don't have to worry about if Hernandez will be allowed to play this season and what his role in the offense will be. Now the Pats can move on and trade for another tight end a lot earlier in the process, or continue to develop their young tight ends such as Jake Ballard. My guess is that Ballard will fill the role Hernandez is leaving and that the Patriots will be just fine going forward. Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks of all time, and it's impossible to say that he won't be good without a great receiving core. Josh McDaniels still brings back one of the best rushing attacks in the league, while adding a quarterback dimension in Tim Tebow that the division isn't read for. People have to remember that the Patriots ALWAYS field one of the best offenses in the league, so the loss of Aaron Hernandez poses no red flags for the team's playoff chances.

Jake Ballard has come a long way after being undrafted in 2010

     Jake Ballard now faces a lot of pressure coming off an ACL injury from a year and a half ago. He suffered the injury while playing against the Patriots in Super Bowl SLVI. Ballard was claimed off waivers by the Patriots in June 2012 and missed the entire season while rehabbing from the knee injury. It's funny to hear people speculate during the offseason about the Patriots having too many tight ends with Ballard, Hernandez and Gronkowski but clearly the organization knows best. With Bill Belichick serving as the team's coach and de facto General Manager you can expect the Patriots trend of success to continue until he retires. When the season rolls around, everyone will be asking Aaron who?And please, do not forget to pray for the family of Odin Lloyd. We all know what it's like to lose a loved one and there is nothing fun about it.

Scouting Report: Marqise Lee

The Trojans have a 2013 Heisman candidate in Marqise Lee

     After watching tape of Marqise Lee last year at USC, I am fully convinced that he is a top 10 talent for the NFL draft in 2014. I am a die hard Clemson Tiger and have been watching Sammy Watkins over the past two seasons, which has been an absolute pleasure, but even my eyes tell me that Marqise Lee is a better football player than Watkins at this point. Sammy is faster and has more upside,  but right now Lee looks like a #1 NFL receiver playing against college football competition. He knows how to set up defenders and is very explosive when changing pace and/or direction. Lee also catches the ball at the highest point, has the ability to score on any play, knows how to get open on a consistent basis, uses long smooth strides to run past defenders, breaks tackles, and has very good hands. The only knack on Marqise is that he tends to let the ball get into his chest a little more than you would like to see, but that can be coached. Lee has no problem catching the ball and toe tapping 2 feet down before falling out of bounds, then protects his fall with a smooth roll. Athleticism is a must for receivers in today's NFL, because bigger corners such as Richard Sherman have been exposing smaller guys who are just fast. The ability to contort your body without losing balance or speed prevents defenders from getting a "solid hit" on a ball-carrier, and Lee has this ability down to a T.

You will be lucky to get a hand on Marqise Lee once he's in open space

    
     Sometimes we talk about football so much that we forget to look at the background of a young man who is a human being when the pads come off. Marqise Lee's story is one that should be told by many, not because of his popularity, but because of the determination he has shown in the face of adversity. Both of Lee's parent's are deaf, so he has to communicate with them through sign language. He also has two other brothers that both got involved in gang activities at an early age. One of the brothers was murdered and the other one is currently in prison (This information came directly from The Sporting News). When you combine the personality of someone who can overcome these kind of obstacles with their superb-athleticism, you have one very special young man. God bless everything Marqise Lee has overcome in his life and we are all rooting for him to succeed in whatever life brings him. Check out this link on youtube to get a glimpse of what Marqise Lee can bring to the NFL with a healthy 2013 campaign: Marqise Lee 2012 USC Highlights

2013 Division Preview: AFC North

Division Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben is an elite player in the NFL

Most Dominant Player: Ben Roethlisberger

1. Pittsburgh Steelers -   10-6
2. Baltimore Ravens   -   8-8
3. Cincinnati Bengals -    7-9
4. Cleveland Browns -    7-9
    
     Hall of Famer Warren Sapp has been heard on the records saying that Pittsburgh's defense is old and slow. And although I would never question someone who has seen 10 million more tapes of football, I think it is completely ok to have a different opinion on the situation. I actually side with Sapp on most of the argument, I just think that the offense will carry the team into the playoff this year. "SIX"burgh might not look like the most complete team on paper in the ultra-competitive AFC North, but they are still a tough group that is very-well coached. For example, look at the San Antonio Spurs in this year's NBA Finals. Tony Parker is 31, Manu Ginobili is 35, Tim Duncan is 37 and yet they have a 3-2 series lead on the much younger Miami Heat. With that said, Super Bowl winning coach Mike Tomlin and his staff should lead the Steelers back to the playoffs in an always tough division.

     The star player returning in the black and yellow is 2-time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has been a headache for defensive coordinators and players since his arrival in the NFL. An elusive QB who throws very well on the run and usually has to be tackled by defensive lineman, Roethlisberger is far from typical. He had a cannon for an arm and should connect plenty of times with Antonio Brown this season. Brown, the play-maker from Central Michigan, is a more complete receiver than Mike Wallace so it was easy to see why the Steelers let Wallace walk in free-agency. Heath Miller will be back, Troy Polomalu should be healthy, and the rest of the D will be "solid" at worst. On top of that, the additions of rookies Jarvis Jones, LeVeon Bell and Markus Wheaton should pose major problems for the rest of the AFC North going forward. The Steelers just seem like the most logical choice for winning the division because they have a great coaching staff and even better players. There is a reason this franchise has won 2 Super Bowls in the past 7 seasons...

   How many reasons do you want me to give for the Ravens not winning the division this year? For now, I'll give 5: Anquan Boldin, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Brandon Ellerbe, Bernard Pollard. They are ALL gone. The Ravens have reloaded but it will take a full season until this team builds the kind of chemistry it had with these talented football players. Joe Flacco , Torry Smith and Ray Rice will once again lead the offense for the most of the season but I just don't think the defense will hold up all year. Haloti Ngata was almost my favorite for "Most Dominant Player" in this division, but I gave the slight edge to Big Ben. It could honestly go either way. The additions of Elvis Dumervil, Matt Elam, Marcus Spears, Arthur Jones, Michael Huff will be a force in the near future but not soon enough. Look for the Ravens to finish 2nd in a division full of big dogs.

AJ Green needs a better QB than Andy Dalton to win a championship

     The Cincinnati Bengals will have a serious problem on their hands after this season, and it is kind of obvious what that problem will be. Andy Dalton. Although I believe Andy Dalton is a good QB in the NFL, I do not believe he is of a caliber that can consistently win a division this tough. Geno Atkins is a stud, AJ Green is a superstar in this league and Tyler Eifert should be as good as advertised within the next couple of years. Other than that, there is no elite player on Cincinnati's roster that can dominate a game. The defense is good, but not great and I believe they will be exposed this Fall. At RB, you can't expect Benjarvus Green Ellis and rookie Giovanni Bernard to carry the load. I don't see either player being a durable or reliable and it will only hurt Andy Dalton's game. Expect a disappointing season from the Bengals in 2013.

     When Michael Lombardi took over as Director of Player Personnel earlier this year, I knew that the Browns were headed in the right direction. The Browns possess the best RB in the division, Trent Richardson, and a big play receiver in Josh Gordon. I think that everyone knows Brandon Weeden is not the answer in Cleveland, so after this season you can expect to see the Browns draft a QB. Richardson is the type of player who can carry an offense on his shoulders and I see him leading the Browns to more victories than last year. On defense the Browns have Joe Haden, D'Qwell Jackson, Phil Taylor and Barkevious Mingoas play-makes. This group is one of the most underrated defenses in the AFC, but they will prove their worth this Fall. Cleveland is 1-2 years removed from making the playoffs...I guarantee it.

    

2013 Division Preview: AFC West

Division Winner: Denver Broncos

The addition of Wes Welker makes the Broncos a Super Bowl favorite

Most Dominant Player: Peyton Manning

1.  Denver Broncos          12-4
2.  Kansas City Chiefs      7-9
3.  San Diego Chargers     5-11
4.  Oakland Raiders          2-14

     There is a lot to say about the Denver Broncos this year. And even after a disappointing one and done in the playoffs last year, fans are expecting the Broncos to finish better then than they did in 2012. With Peyton Manning serving as the the division's "sheriff," you can guarantee that Denver will pick up right where they left off. A stinging home loss to the Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens still haunts Broncos fans everywhere, while the players are working their hardest to erase those memories by future play on the field. Willis McGahee is coming off an MCL injury but the Broncos "tailback-by-committee" approach has always proved to be effective...in step Montee Ball from Wisconsin. The former record setting RB has good vision but I don't think he has the top end speed to stay on the field. With that said, expect Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillaman to get more carries this year at the RB position. At the WR position, Denver picked up the play-making Wes Welker via free agency to pair with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Joel Dreessenn and Jacob Tamme are good enough TE to an offense that is expected to finish in the top 5 this Fall. On Defense, the Broncos lose Elvis Dumervil but still have Von Miller rushing the opposing team's quarterback. Scary...and although Champ Bailey is getting a little older he is still a quality starting CB in the NFL. The addition of Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie will only help the growing games of Quentin Carter and Rahim Moore. Look for Denver to score a TON of points in 2013.

Jamaal Charles is primed for another big year under Andy Reid

     Before I start talking about the Kansas City Chiefs, I want to go ahead and say that I won't waste any time time talking about the Oakland Raiders in this post. After seeing this team go from a Super Bowl favorite in 2000 to now...I feel bad for the fans. I think they deserve MUCH better from their owner and upper management. As one of the storied franchises in the NFL, there is no excuse for the Packers to be winning consistently but not the Raiders...give this town a REAL football team. They deserve it. Now, about the Kansas City Chiefs who seriously think Alex Smith is going to win them a division title. The purpose of drafting a QB or acquiring a starter in free agency is to win the division. Not only is Alex Smith's game dwarfed by Colin Kaepernick's, it is miniscule compared to Peyton Manning. With Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery on the outside, I just don't see things coming together for anyone on offense but Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki. There is no real threat other than Bowe at receiver so that limits what plays the Chiefs can call on 3rd downs...Simply put, everyone is going to be looking for the screen pass if you have ever seen an Andy Reid coached Eagles team. On the good side, Kansas City boasts some very good players on defense. They return Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, Tamba Hali, and signed Keenan Lewis in free agency. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, you have to score points to win in the NFL and I don't see the offense's level of performance keeping up with that of the defense's.

     San Diego has no running game. Period. The team never should have let Mike Tolbert go to Carolina last year because Ryan Matthews has been the banged up RB that everyone thought he would be coming out of college. I like the new head coach Mike McCoy but I don't see a reason to place San Diego above the Chiefs. The Chargers lack superstar power at wideout, running back, and tight end(yes I know Antonio Gates is still playing football). The defense is average at best, and the team is simply in rebuilding mode even though they won't admit it. Manti Te'o should have a solid rookie campaign but he will get his ankles broken plenty of times before he is considered a solid pro in this league. Any other thoughts on the Chargers after losing Melvin Ingram to an ACL and signing Dwight Freeney? Nope. Uninteresting...    

2013 Division Preview: AFC South

Division Winner - Houston Texans

Most Dominant Player - Andrew Luck

1.  Houston Texans                 11-5
2.  Indianapolis Colts               9-7
3.  Jacksonville Jaguars            8-8
4.  Tennessee Titans                 4-12

Andrew Luck is a future MVP in the NFL

     The Houston Texans have emerged as one of the up-and-coming franchises in the NFL over the last two years. But in the same breath, you have to mention that both exits from the playoffs came at the hands of Tom Brady and the Patriots. So, what have the Texans done to become a better team than the Patriots this Fall? For starters, they drafted Nuke Hopkins in the 1st round, which will make him an instant #2 receiver behind Andre Johnson. Having two solid receivers, Owen Daniels at TE, and Matt Schaub at QB will make life much easier for Arian Foster. Look for the former Tennessee RB to rush for over 1,500 yard this fall and get around 500 yds receiving. If you think the Texans have had a great play-action game in recent years, stay tuned for MANY big plays in 2013. On the defensive side of the ball, the franchise added Ed Reed in free agency. Reed won't be 100% but he will still make enough plays to make his presence felt. At LB, Brian Cushing is coming off a torn ACL but he should post double digit sacks. And did I forget to mention for 2012 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, J.J. Watt? Houston should boast a top 5 defense in the league as long as Wade Phillips is coaching this talented bunch.It's funny how Gary Kubiak went from being on the hot seat back in November of 2010 to having one of the best teams in the NFL on a consistent basis.

     Indianapolis will take a backseat to the Texans this year, and within the coming years if they don't improve their defense. Adding a nice quality RB would help Vick Ballard because this season he is doomed to have a down year. Donald Brown and Delone Carter are too injury prone. But for the Colts, there is no need to worry because they have the division's best player in Andrew Luck. I believe JJ Watt will make less of an impact this year and Luck will emerge as a top 5 QB in the NFL. Not only does he have highest IQ of any signal caller around, he is the most physical QB and can kill you outside the pocket with his feet. The return of future Hall of Famer Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, T.Y. Hilton & Coby Fleener will help Luck make the transition into an MVP calibur QB in the Pass-Heavy NFL. On defense, I'm not fully sold on Paul Kruger but the Colts did draft Bjoern Werner in the 1st round this year...so, it doesn't matter how well Kruger plays. Indianapolis also still has 5 time Pro Bowler Robert Mathis at OLB and Vontae Davis at CB. This team has playmakers on their new 3-4 defense but it still lacks the star-power at NT that can stuff an opponent's running game. Therefore, I am picking the Colts to finish 2nd in the AFC South for the 2nd year in a row.

By adding Luke Joeckel at RT, the Jags are committed to building a solid franchise

     When Jacksonville was bought by Shad Khan everyone knew that there were going to be big changes. But what everyone didn't expect was for the changes to be this significant, that being in a positive way. When I was making a mock draft two days before Round 1 began, I had the Jags taking Luke Joeckel at #2 for several reasons. I never published my mock draft because I only got through the middle of the first round, but I still had 4 of the first 5 picks correct. The Jags SHOULD be committed to the run, and the best way to execute that plan is by drafting the most versatile lineman on the board. I don't see a QB on the Jags roster that can lead them to the playoffs so there was no reason to put them ahead of the Colts this year. In fact, even with a great O-Line the Jaguars will be having Maurice Jones Drew back off a lisfranc injury. Having playmaker Denard Robinson will help, but not enough to make the Jaguars have an elite running game this year. At receiver, they have the troublesome Justin Blackmon and journeyman Cecil Shorts...bleh. At TE, Marcedes Lewis...bleh. Their quarterbacks will have time to throw and the backs will have lanes to run, but this offense lacks the firepower to win a division at the moment. Defensively in 2012 the Jaguars finished 30th overall out of 32 teams. There is nothing worth writing about when you have a defense that bad...it can only improve under new coach Gus Bradley.


     The Tennessee Titans have one of the worst signal callers in the NFL with Jake Locker behind center. Unless he completely changes his game around I see Locker having another down year and eventually being supplanted by Ryan Fitzpatrick on the depth chart. Chris Johnson will once again be the focal point of the offense, which he should be...but you can expect plenty of turnover on this side of the ball. The Titans boast a horrific defense after giving up a league high 55 touchdowns. Nothing else to write about here either...just an all around bad team that is going to get worse.

2013 Division Preview: AFC East

Division Winner - New England Patriots

Most Dominant Player - Tom Brady (DUH)

1.  New England Patriots        11-5
2.  Buffalo Bills                        8-8
3.  New York Jets                   6-10
4.  Miami Dolphins                  3-13

Tom Brady is still one of the top 5 players in the NFL

     In one of the dullest divisions in football, there are talents that people will be very familiar with every week when NFL Sunday Countdown comes on. There's Muhammed Wilkerson(Jets), Marcell Dareus(Bills), Mike Wallace(Dolphins), Geno Smith(Jets), Dion Jordan(Dolphins), Robert Woods(Bills), etc. Plenty of young talent coming up in the league...but there are some very ELITE players in the AFC East such as Tom Brady, CJ Spiller, Cameron Wake, Jairus Byrd, Aaron Hernandez, Stevie Johnson and Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots should still run the table in the AFC East because EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, and Ryan Tanehill are not ready to overthrown Tom Brady as the best offensive commander in the division. Brady and the Patriots always reign supreme as they have won 10 of the last 12 AFC East Crowns. I have very little doubt that Bill Belichik and the rest of the Patriots coaching staff will put their players in position to dominate the division again. By adding Danny Amendola in the slot, Aaron Dobson/Josh Boyce on the outside, and Jamie Collins at LB the Patriots have simply reloaded for the future. New England will put up a ton of points on offense with the best TE duo in the NFL and the 2nd best QB in the league Tom Brady.

Marcel Dareus should thrive in the Bills new D

     And now for the rest of the lowly AFC East...starting with the newly coached Buffalo Bills. Doug Marrone is hoping to turn around a franchise that hasn't reached the playoffs in 14 years by adding...cough...EJ Manuel. Moving on, the Bills at least have CJ Spiller and Stevie Johnson to rely upon when the ball needs to be touched by a playmaker. Although Buffalo has 2 time super-athletic Jairus Byrd, former superstar Mario Williams and budding playmaker Marcell Dareus, they seemed to give up a ton of points and yards last year. With new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine you should expect the Bills to live up to their talent on defense.  I truly believe the QB position will lead this team to mediocrity, because of the inexperience as far as "winning" is concerned. I expect the Dolphins to have a terrible season once again with less than average receivers. Mike Wallace and a banged up Dustin Keller are not going to help Ryan Tanehill develop into a good NFL QB, sorry Dolphins fans. Who could forget about the New York Jets and their 5 QBs? Geno Smith will take a year to develop into a perennial starter but it might take longer without a legitimate running game. I believe Santonio Holmes and a healthy Stephen Hill will take pressure off the Jets running game, but the lack there of will be exposed more-so than not.  

2013 Division Preview: NFC East

        When the NFC East begins competition next year, things won't be any different than they have in the past. This division is always one of the most competitive in the NFL all year and has a reputation of crowning its winner after Week 17. Plainly stated, this division usually comes down to the last game of the season. The reigning division champs are the Washington Redskins, led by Robert Griffin III. This guy came in as a rookie last year, and put up the best numbers of any QB in the division (TD-INT ratio, Wins, Total QBR, Rushing Yards and Rushing TDs). So which QB will lead their team to a division crown this year with RGIII coming off a late season ACL tear?

Victor Cruz is an elite receiver and should be paid around $12 million/year

Division Winner - New York Giants

Most Dominant Player - Victor Cruz

1.  New York Giants               10-6
2.  Philadelphia Eagles             9-7
3.  Dallas Cowboys                 7-9
4.  Washington Redskins         4-12

     Whoah!!! The Redskins go from 1st to 4th?! Yes, it will happen. In the NFL, your season depends on how healthy your QB stays and I don't see anything that will make the Redskins a division winner in 2013. Kirk Cousins is a good QB but he has to develop with a better group of receivers, as the Redskins do not have elite talent at the position. Their defense is MORE than suspect, so I see a huge fall for Washington going forward now that RGIII has shown that there is a chink in his armor. Michael Vick plays with injury every season believe it or not, but don't expect him to miss the kind of time that he missed last season. With Chip Kelly now at the helm of the Philadelphia Eagles, you can fully expect a turnaround up north. He is hands down the youngest but smartest and most innovative of all coaches in the NFC East. I believe he will be very successful in this league on a consistent level regardless of what players he has, but he won't win a division title this year.

LeSean McCoy is one of the best RB's in the NFL when healthy

     The Dallas Cowboys are a joke. So you're telling me that a team who had trouble running the ball goes and drafts a 205lb running back? He's going to be the guy splitting carries with the oft-injured Demarco Murray? Not good enough...in fact, I expect the Cowboys to have a season EXACTLY like they did in 2012. Tony Romo will win some games and have two 1,000 yard receivers again, but Dallas won't play good enough to win the division. Now, on to the New York Football Giants...and by the way, one of my best friends is a huge fan of this team so I don't take joy in talking up his team. However, facts are facts, and you have to believe that Big Blue is primed for a big run with a better running game and defense in store this Fall. David Wilson is one of the most talented young backs in the NFL when he is healthy, and I expect him to eclipse 1,000 yards with ease in the Giants running scheme as the feature back. Ahmad Bradshaw is a beast in his own right, but Wilson has the home run speed that elite RBs such as Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy have. After a full NFL season and off-season under his belt, expect David Wilson to be a breakout player this season.

     And how could I forget to talk up the ultra talented Victor Cruz?! This guy stayed quiet as long as he could before holding out but you have to give credit where it is due. Cruz has far outplayed his contract over the past two years and clearly deserves to be one of the highest paid slot receivers in the NFL. The problem is the the Giants have Hakeem Nicks, who is their true number one receiver in the offense. If Nicks could stay healthy like Cruz then he would put up the same gaudy numbers, as proven in the past. This has ultimately led to Nicks missing OTA's and possibly holding out for a bigger contract along with Victor Cruz. The Giants do have a small problem on their hands with these young receivers contracts, but when the games roll around you can expect to see a deadly tandem on the field. Eli Manning throws a lot of interceptions but he also creates more big plays than any other QB in the NFC East other than RGIII. Jason Pierre Paul's back injury is a little concerning but not enough to make me think he will have less than 10 sacks next year. The Giants simply have too much depth along the D-Line, which is why they were willing to let a player like Osi Umenyiora walk away in free agency when they could have traded him last year. Either way, expect a tight race in the NFC East as usual with the Giants coming out on top.

Can Brian Cushing return to form after last year's ACL tear?

 

     After seeing Adrian Peterson defy all odds last year after an ACL tear, NFL fans should be optimistic that other players can recover similarly.  Jamaal Charles also tore his ACL in the 2011 season and ran for over 1,500 yards also. And this is coming from someone who takes contact every single down. If they aren't running the ball, then they are pass protecting for the quarterback or catching passes out the backfield. Like the two RB's I just mentioned, Brian Cushing also plays a position that requires physicality on every down. The former NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and 2011 All Pro tore his knee up in Week 5 last season, but is ahead of schedule according to Gary Kubiak. After the recent recoveries of RGIII and Adrian Peterson I fully expect Brian Cushing to be the player that led the Texans in tackles 2 of his first 3 seasons. So what now for the Texans? They have added Ed Reed at Safety, DeAndre 'Nuke' Hopkins at WR, and still have the 2012 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, J.J. Watt. What they were missing against the Patriots last year, the Houston Texans have gone out and added in the draft and offseason. Expect this team to make the AFC Championship this year, if not the Super Bowl. With a power running game and a talented/experienced defense, the Texans have now become the 2nd best team in the AFC behind Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos.