Is the Chargers Offense Capable of Scoring?

Phillip Rivers will continue to struggle in 2013 with turnovers

     The San Diego Chargers haven't made it to the playoffs since 2009, and they were a one-and-done team against the Jets that postseason. There is a lot to be proven by the Chargers organization this Fall is anyone is going to believe in the new regime. I don't expect them to win the division, but if Mike McCoy fails to hit the 7 win mark then you can expect optimism from the public. Seriously, AJ Smith really made a mess out of this franchise and I honestly believe it will take a few years before the talent shows on this roster. Tom Telesco has to deal with a less than average quarterback, a dismal group of running backs, and an unproductive/constantly unhealthy wide receiving core. The lack of talent in San Diego clearly shows why they haven't won a playoff game in 5 seasons, or even made the playoffs in 4 years.

     It isn't a matter of "if" Phillip Rivers will be replaced within the next couple of years, it's a matter of "when." Rivers is one of the toughest competitors in the league and has the fire to lead a team, but not the accuracy or decision making to be a franchise quarterback. It really sucked to see the team let its best receiver, Vincent Jackson, walk to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because there was a big lack of consistency at the position last season. Vincent Brown showed promise in the preseason before breaking his ankle, so let's hope he can stay healthy for Rivers going forward. Denario Alexander, a surprise #1 receiver that the Rams cut last year, did emerge as the best big-play threat for the Chargers offense last year. Alexander, like Vincent Jackson, is 6-5 and a tough match-up for anyone trying to tackle or jump with him. The 217 pounder averaged a whopping 17.8 yards and scored 7 touchdowns after playing in just the last 9 games of the season. The only problem with Denario Alexander is his knees, and they figure to give out at some point this year after having 5 surgeries. Keenan Allen was a nice pickup in the draft but it will take him a year to get adjusted to the NFL's game speed.

Ryan Matthews is officially a "bust"

    Antonio Gates is unfortunately at the end of his NFL life, as he averaged a career low 11.0 yards per catch. Gates caught 7 touchdowns but he also caught the 2nd least amount of passes in his career, 49. Stepping in for Antonio Gates will be LaDarius Green, who should be a good TE for the next 5-6 years. But unfortunately for the running back position, things don't look so bright for the future. The depth chart currently has Ryan Matthews, Danny Woodhead, Ronnie Brown and Edwin Baker. I would be surprised if any of these backs get picked in a fantasy football draft this year...seriously. The Chargers cannot WAIT until the 2014 draft to pick up a running back!

Actual 2012 Points Per Game: 21.9
Predicted 2013 Points Per Game: 23.0

Predicting RGIII and the Redskins 2013 Season

Robert Griffin III's health is the key to Washington being successful

     The Washington Redskins have one of the best players in the NFL at their QB position at Robert Griffin III, but is coming off an ACL tear suffered in last year's playoff game against the Seattle Seahawks. While Griffin's toughness and competitiveness will never be debated, his durability is without a doubt in question. There is no way that you can ignore the long term effects of a QB who gets his knee torn up all because he is a threat outside of the pocket. The fact that the Redskins rely on Griffin's running ability so much proves how bad they will be when he isn't leaving the pocket. During the 2012 regular season RGIII finished 1st in the NFL in yards per carry, beating out league MVP Adrian Peterson. Seriously?! Yea...seriously. So after his success, which got the Redskins a playoff berth, what does Griffin and the Washington franchise need to do to get better? How do you top a season in which RGIII threw for 20 TDs against 5 INTs, got voted to a Pro Bowl and led the Skins back to the playoffs?

     The first answer to that question is simple. Play better defense. That will be hard to do with starting DE Jarvis Jenkins suspended for the first 4 games of the 2013 season, but it HAS to happen in order for the team to get better. The Redskins obviously have success running the read option, so throwing that play out the window is out of the question. In the NFL, you have to stick with something until the opponent proves they can stop what you are bringing to the table. Teams will run the same running play all game as long as it moves the chains...it's a simple philosophy. I don't see RGIII staying healthy for the entire season with his style of play, so the Redskins defense has to step up their game tremendously. Washington's defense gave up the 3rd most passing yards, allowed the 4th most touchdowns, and surrendered the 11th most touchdowns last season. Although the run defense was stout all season and the secondary picked off the 3rd most passes in the NFL, there clearly has to be more consistency on that side of the ball.  Look for the Redskins to struggle this season with an unhealthy RGIII, a lackluster group of wideouts and an average defense

NFL Week 1 Prediction of Every Game

     For many followers of the football world, the season begins Thursday September 5, when the Denver Broncos host the Baltimore Ravens. Although that is true, the real action of the NFL begins on Sunday, September 8. That is when every fantasy football player looks at their smart-phone every 5 minutes to see who's putting up the most stats. There are TEN games at 1:00 and only two at 4:25. Ironically, there There are This year we will have some very interesting match-ups Week 1 and there are players primed to have big days. Let's take a look at which teams "should" win each each game:

Andrew Luck is primed for a big Week against Oakland

Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck and co should lead the Colts to a big victory in Week 1. Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener will simply have more chemistry with Luck than Matt Flynn will have with his Oakland receivers. Darren McFadden is starting the season healthy, so don't sleep on the Raiders big-play potential. Oakland still has Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford: two players than can make you pay in the blink of an eye. Regardless, you can forget about an upset. Indianapolis' D should be interesting to see as well with Dwight Freeney off to San Diego. Colts by 9

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

This game is somewhat of a "what the heck to expect" during the 1st week. Alex Smith is the new QB in Kansas and Andy Reed is the new coach. Other than that, the same players on offense remain for the Chiefs so we will see if they can keep up(or if they even have to) with the Jaguars. If Maurice Jones Drew is healthy, he can't wait to show the wold what they have been missing since he injured his foot last season. All reports are saying that he will be ready for training camp, so I expect the Jags to control the clock more with a balanced attack that features their star running back. Jamaal Charles is a beast in his own right but he is no Maurice Jones Drew.  This game should be close, and if I had to choose between who is better in the 4th quarter (between Blaine Gabbert and Alex Smith) I would have to go with Smith. Chiefs by 3

Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers

Andre Johnson will have plenty of catches in Week 1

This game should not be close from the start. The Texans have a dominating defense and a potent offense that only got more dangerous with the addition of Nuke Hopkins. San Diego's D is average at best so I expect to see a 21 point 1st quarter from Houston. JJ Watt will show everyone that he is still the best defensive player in the NFL and Brian Cushing will begin to ease his way back into this violent game. Phillip Rivers should get knocked around all day and there is no way Ryan Matthews runs wild on the Texans. It will be interesting to see how competitive Mike McCoy can make this game with his coaching and offensive mastery, because the Chargers are clearly in re-building mode. Texans by 17

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Adrian Peterson should run wild on Detroit but Christian Ponder should once again look like an average QB. Detroit's D is going to be healthy in the first game and should get to Ponder early and often. Remember, the Lions went 4-4 during the 1st 8 games of the season last year, so they should at least be competitive. In fact, if Reggie Bush shows up then the Lions should have no problem running up the score in Ford Field. Minnesota is still a border-line playoff team that is capable of scoring points on the road and this is also a division game. This should come down to which QB doesn't make a mistake in the last 4 minutes of the game. Lions by 3


Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

BJ Raji will have a big impact against the 49ers

Aaahhhh. A mathch-up that ANYONE wants to see. This is one of two 4:25 games in Week 1 and both are broadcasted on Fox. Aaron Rodgers takes on a team that he can't seem to beat. They got him twice last year after he beat the 49ers in 2009 and 2010, once each season. Will Green Bay be able to run the ball against the 49ers? If they can top 100 yards rushing, this game will go in Green Bay's favor. Dom Capers has no reason to lose to the 49ers three times in a row, even if the Colin Kaepernick is the team's opposing QB. Having Anquan Boldin will help the Niners O, but I don't think it will be enough to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers attack. Packers win on a last second Mason Crosby field goal. Packers by 2

Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears

The physicality of Cincinnati's front four could turn this game into an ultra-competitive affair. AJ Green will have 100 yds and a TD, while we will see how the Bengals new running attack will look. If Cincinnati turns the ball over once or twice on the road, it could be a long day in Chicago. Marc Trestman's pass-first offense is great for running back Matt Forte, because he can catch defenses off balance. It also helps to have Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery on the outside, while Earl Bennett weaves through the middle. Bears by 6

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

What a match-up?! We get to see how Steven Jackson looks in the Falcons running game and witness the great Atlanta passing attack. Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones will all show up as this game should post the most point of any this week. Drew Brees went 1-1 against the Falcons last year and always knows how to play a divisional opponent. Despite Atlanta's overwhelming amount of offensive talent, the Saints should take care of business at home in a close game. New Orleans by 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets

Darrelle Revis gets to play the Jets in Week 1 and Josh Freeman looks to get the monkey off his back. One problem...Rex Ryan always coaches a great defense. Freeman will make more mistakes than the Bucs would like to see, but the offense scores two touchdowns. The Jets don't have much firepower on offense, so it is hard to imagine them outscoring Tampa Bay on any day of the year. Especially now that Santonio Holmes is not dressing up in Week 1. Bucs by 4

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Whoah. The Panthers have Cam Newton, Steve Smith, Mike Tolbert, DeAngelo Williams and Greg Olsen. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin, Sydney Rice, Percy Harvin, Zach Miller, Golden Tate and a MUCH better defense. Seahawks by 9

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Shady McCoy will have a huge day against the Skins

This is going to be a good matchup. The Redskins should start RGIII but how much will be run? Washington's top QB averaged more yards per carry than Adrian Peterson last year, which means he is still a dual-threat even coming off an ACL injury. The Skins should put up around 24 points and make the game difficult for Philly. Speaking of the Eagles, no one knows who will start at QB in Week 1 and that includes myself. I thought it would be Michael Vick, but there is no telling who it could be. Regardless, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are going to make the Redskins sick of their speed all game. Chip Kelly should have an interesting offense installed for this match-up and might even pull out a W. Philadelphia wins by 3

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

In a game that always gets past the point of "physical," you have the New York football Giants taking on the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants always know how to play the Cowboys, but were ousted last year by the 'Boys in Week 1. DeMarco Murray being healthy brings an element to the Cowboys that remains to be untouched. They went undefeated last year when he went over 100 yards...and he should stay healthy for at least one week again. Cowboys win by 3

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams

Now that Arizona supposedly has Carson Palmer, they are supposed to be future contenders for an AFC West title with Bruce Arians. They lost to the Rams twice last year by 14 points each game, and that was when St. Louis offense was atrocious. The Cardinals have to improve against the Rams in every area of the game this year to leave Edward-Jones Done with a win. Arians is a great coach but unless the Cardinals can control this game on the ground, they don't stand a chance. St. Louis has a lot to prove at the RB and WR position with all of the off-season moves that were made. Their defense looks to be one of the top in the NFC and should actually carry the St. Louis through this game. Arizona makes it interesting, but the Rams win by 4.

Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns

Trent Richardson is the real deal

Miami is not as good as everyone thinks. Lamar Miller has yet to prove he can be an every-down back in the NFL and his backups lack any explosion. Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson can give you legitimate passing options while Mike Wallace is supposedly the "guy." Miami should score a couple of TDs but no more than 2. The Cleveland Browns have a top 5 rusher in Trent Richardson and he will make the lives of every Dolphins defender miserable all day. Although Brandon Weeden is an average QB, he will make enough plays in the passing game to get a W. Trent Richardson has 150 yards from scrimmage with 2 TDs and the Browns win by 9

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

New England is walking into a trap game at the beginning of the season. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are two solid running backs who care capable of eating time off the clock in Buffalo. Although no one expects the Bills to contend for an AFC East title this Fall, they are expected to pull off a season of around 8 wins. EJ Manuel is dinged up so we should see the great Kevin Kolb in Week 1. But I'd bet that since Bill Bellichick is the opposing coach, Kolb and his thin skin will be exposed in Buffalo. The Patriots will score touchdowns no matter who is playing wide receiver because of their legendary QB, Tom Brady. Danny Amendola will be the chains mover should Gronkowski not be ready for Week 1 and the running game should have it's way. Patriots by 6

Who's good...and who's GREAT?

Jim Kelly was a very good quarterback and is a deserving member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame

     Every year you have players that play on a high level in the NFL, only to be forgotten a couple of year later by fans and their peers. Most of the players I am mentioning have made Pro Bowls(which aren't that hard to make now-a-days) and end up reaping the benefits of big time contracts from teams who fail to scout the player properly. Scouting is an art that deserves to be respected but it is more common sense than one thinks. If a football player is effective on a consistent basis, then you have to pull the trigger...but what's consistent? 2 years? 5 years, when the player's body has taken a lot of hits? The answer is this: Consistency means on a week-to-week basis in the NFL. These players make a lot of money and every game counts in this multi-billion dollar industry. Does Tom Brady have to throw 4 TDs a week to be effective? Absolutely not. But he does have to have a high completion percentage and lead his team to victory in the 4th quarter. To break it down even further, you have two different groups of players who are consistent. You have good players, who are hyped beyond their status, and GREAT players who transcend the game and present problems for every opposing player that is looking for victory.

Peyton Manning is Great

     One player that is easy to talk about is Jim Kelly. He is a perfect example of a player who made the Pro Bowl 4 times, was a 1st team All Pro once, is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and went to 4 Super Bowls. So what is Jim Kelly? Good or great? I'd say Jim Kelly was a VERY good football player. He has enough acclimates to warrant him being in the Hall of Fame, but he went to the Super Bowl four times and came away with zero victories. For a QB to be GREAT, he has to lead his team to a Super Bowl on top of having top-notch stats...even in the Wins and Losses department. Does that mean every QB who has won a Super Bowl is GREAT? Absolutely not...but it does mean that QBs like Troy Aikman, John Elway, Steve Young, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are GREAT players. Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Brett Favre, Steve McNair, Eli Manning and Phil Sims were are very GOOD QBs in their own right. But they were not GREAT.

Terrell Davis was good, but he was no LT

     Because a QB is the leader of a team and gets paid the most, you expect him to win a Super Bowl. On the flipside there isn't a RB that you would expect to lead a team to the Super Bowl. Adrian Peterson is a GREAT running back but even after rushing for 2,000 yards the Minnesota Vikings barely made the playoffs. They were quickly ousted by the Packers and posed absolutely no threat for any other team in the post-season. Barry Sanders, another GREAT back who didn't have a chance in the world to make a Super Bowl was also the best RB of his time. Marshall Faulk was a great back who was the 2nd most valuable player on the Rams behind Kurt Warner during their Super Bowl run in 2000. But if he wouldn't have won a title that season, he still would have gone down as a great player based on the amazing statistics he put up on a consistent basis in the NFL. LaDanian Tomlinson was a great back but Terrell Davis was very good. What? Terrell Davis, a 2-time Super Bowl Champion was only a very good RB? He made 3 Pro Bowls and even more impressive is his 3-time All Pro acknowledgement. BUT LaDanian Tomlinson made the Pro Bowl 5 times, was a 1st team All Pro 4 times, a 2nd team All Pro twice, has the 2nd most touchdowns of all time, is a part of the 10,000 yard club, and scored the most rushing touchdowns in a single season by any player in the NFL. Terrell Davis is on the NFL 1990's All decade team but LT will be a 1st ballot shoe-in for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

JaDaveon Clowney is a future GREAT player on the NFL level

     Too often you hear people throw the word "great" around like it is normal for people to display greatness.  I have been living for 27 years and there aren't many GREAT players I've seen. Don't let people talk up "very good" players such as Donovan McNabb and Chad Johnson, who were effective every year. Make others mention the dominance of Reggie White, Randy Moss and Bruce Smith. You know, players who made people all over the world glue their eyes to the television. Every single snap people would watch Lawrence Taylor or Derrick Thomas to see how fast they could get to the QB or RB. It was as if there weren't even 21 other players on the field. It's the same with the up-and-coming superstar JaDaveon Clowney. Every play, you are watching this mammoth of a kid come off the edge to see how he is going to interrupt the play with his athleticism and power. Don't let people throw the word GREAT out there because we don't see that type of football player on every team. This is a discussion that I could argue about with people all day. And as a result I will be bringing up this topic on my 2nd podcast, being released next week.

Detroit Lions Season Outlook - Offense

Calvin Johnson is on pace to break Jerry Rice's all-time record for receiving yards

     Jerry Rice is the greatest receiver of all time and there are no if's, and's or but's about it...period. But last season, Calvin Johnson broke Rice's record of receiving yards in a single season with 1,964. Ladies and gentlemen, Calvin Johnson wants to retire as the best NFL receiver to play the game. If you haven't taken this fact serious then it might be time for you to jump on the train. I first got a glimpse of Johnson in person when his Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets came to Memorial Stadium to play my Clemson Tigers in 2004. He dominated the game as a true freshman and looked far superior than any other athlete on the field. In the 4th quarter, Reggie Ball tossed a jump-ball to Johnson on a fade route in the end-zone and connected with ease. Defending on the play was Justin Miller, who would go on to be drafted by the New York Jets the following spring in the 2nd round. I had a lot of respect for Justin because I felt that he was our all around best player, but Calvin Johnson made him look like an average college corner back. He has been dominating NFL corner backs the same way he torched college corners ever since he entered the league as the 2nd pick in the 2007, so expect another 1,500 yard season from the beast known as Megatron this year.

Ryan Broyles needs a healthy 2013 season for the Lions to be successful

     Despite the presence of Megatron on the Lions receiving core, the position's depth looks a little on the worrisome side from an outsider's perspective.  The team HAD to get rid of Titus Young in the offseason (who had the 2nd most talent on the roster last year - HUGE BLOW), Ryan Broyles is coming off an ACL tear, Nate Burleson is coming off a broken leg (and he will be 32 years old once the season starts), Corey Fuller is a rookie who hasn't played much football, Mike Thomas only had 108 receiving yard last year, Kris Durham only has 11 career catches in 2 years, Devin Thomas probably won't make the roster, etc. Unless Ryan Broyles and Nate Burleson can stay healthy, teams will double Calvin Johnson all day because of the lack of a legitimate #2 receiver. Reggie Bush can fulfill that role on some downs as a RB but we have to count on him being a running back first.  The wide receiver position needs to have a great training camp in order for me to be convinced Martin Mayhew knows what he is doing.

Reggie Bush is a perfect fit for the Lion's offense

     Ahh...the running backs. Reggie Bush was picked up in the off-season to fill the role that Jahvid Best was supposed to bring back in 2012. Best looks like he will never play another down in the NFL and the Lions have added their new versatile speed-back. Bush can catch the ball out of the backfield, run in between the tackles and honestly be a 3-down back in Detroit. The position also has 2011 2nd round pick Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois, who was brought in to be a complimentary power/speed back. He wasn't himself last year after suffering an achilles injury his rookie year, and should be more explosive this Fall. I want to say that he will split carries with Reggie Bush but there are indications that might say otherwise. Joique Bell is listed as the team's 3rd running back but he averages 5 yards per carry, can pass block better than Bush or Leshoure, and is a bit more durable as far as injury history is concerned. In the NFL, you can't realistically expect all three of these running backs to stay healthy. So when one goes down the next man will should step in with ease.
    

Matthew Stafford is a top 10 QB in the NFL

     Matthew Stafford just became one of the top 10 highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL, and he hasn't even won a playoff game. Should this matter when handing out such an extension? In this case, the answer is no. If you throw Shaun Hill in the game, he is not going to make the same throws on the run, or on deep routes as Matthew Stafford can. Stafford has also shaken off his injury label and passed for the 3rd most yard in the last two seasons behind only Drew Brees and Tom Brady. People somehow don't believe that Stafford has earned his new contract, but he has more than earned it. If you threw him on a team like the Minnesota Vikings with Adrian Peterson's running game, you would have a deadly offense. His offensive line looks to be better than last year with Riley Rieff manning the Left Tackle spot. Jeff Backus retired in the offseason and Reiff has added 10 pounds of muscle to his frame as a precautionary measure. Riley hasn't played the left tackle position for a full season since he was in Iowa 3 years ago, so he will be tested early and often by opponents. Dominic Raola is still holding down the center position and seems to have gained 20 pounds himself, trying to make himself more durable for the season. Corey Hilliard is stepping in for the "wanted to be overpaid" Gosder Cherrilus at the right tackle position and 8-year veteran Rob Sims is penciled in as the starter at left guard. Rookie Larry Warford will be expected to step in a start at right guard and should be pro bowler in a few years.
 

     Overall, the Detroit Lions offense is capable of putting up major points on the board this year. They are tougher up front on the offensive line, Matthew Stafford is more experienced going into his 5th year, Calvin Johnson will give you another 1,500 yard season and Reggie Bush adds a lot of excitement to a deep group of running backs. With that said, Nate Burleson and Reggie Bush staying healthy will make or break the Lions this year. They don't have any receiver other than the oft-injured Ryan Broyles to rely on for consistency, and no other running back on the roster brings the home-run play like Reggie Bush. At the midway point of the season, we should have a much better idea of what the Lions record should look like at the end of the season.